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Pollster says Turkey’s main opposition could win general election

Turkey’s main opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) would be the first party in a possible general election, according to a recent opinion poll conducted between September 1 and 7 by the Avrasya Public Research Center (AKAM).

The AKAM, a Turkish polling company, said on Monday that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) came in second, while the AKP’s election ally Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) took third.

The pro-Kurdish opposition Peoples’ Democratic Party (HDP) and the nationalist opposition Good Party (IYI) followed in fourth and fifth, respectively.

The pollster just revealed the ranking without elaborating detail on the percentage votes for each party, vowing to provide more information on the results of the poll.

The AKAM’s chairman Kemal Ozkiraz said Istanbul’s local elections, the AKP-annulled March 31 and the rerun June 23 votes, have resulted in voters’ behavior and significant shifts in favor of the CHP, playing an important role in the results of the AKAM poll.

The March 31 local elections saw the city changed hands for the first time in 25 years, however, the Supreme Electoral Council (YSK) annulled CHP’s candidate Ekrem Imamoglu’s narrow victory at the request of the AKP, ruling for a rerun of the mayoral race.

In the June 23 election rerun, Istanbulites reacted to the YSK’s annulment and once again elected Imamoglu, casting this time 529,000 more votes when compared to the March 31 election.

“If the June 23 election [in Istanbul] was a general election, the same reaction would be across the country. The perception of unlawfulness [by the public] has resulted in AKP’s loss of votes across Turkey,” Ozkiraz tweeted on Monday.

Another factors that have caused AKP’s loss of votes are listed by Ozkiraz as corruption, waste, economical crisis, refugee problem, and unemployment. The chair added that AKP’s any move so far could not stop that loss.

The public poll reportedly did not take into account the new parties, which are expected to be formed by two former AKP heavyweights — former Deputy Prime Minister Ali Babacan and former Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu.

Ozkiraz claimed that Babacan’s possible party may take 5-6 percent votes from the AKP, 1-2 percent from the CHP, 1 percent from the MHP, 2 percent from the IYI, and 0,5 percent from the HDP, while Davutoglu’s party may only 3-4 percent votes from the AKP.

The chair added that they can say more lucid analysis when the prospective parties are established.

Prior to the annulled March 31 local polls, the pollster showed AKP’s Binali Yildirim winning the elections with 44 percent of the votes against Imamoglu with 42 percent.

However, Imamoglu narrowly beat Yildirim, with the former receiving 48,8 percent and the latter garnering 48,5 percent.

Later, the AKAM estimated the votes for Imamoglu as 53 percent for the rerun June 23 elections, while the mayor secured 54.21 percent of votes at the end.

AKP now paralyzed and struggling to keep Erdogan in power – Pollster

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